Wednesday, April 1, 2020

Has the market bottomed?

Last week, I had seen consecutive three day surge of all US major indices averaging nearly 22% gains which marks the best performance in a decade last week. As such, it is very normal for most of our viewers to think that the markets have bottomed and time to get into buy position for heavily discounted blue chip stocks.

The recovery I observed for the past week could be a technical one ("dead cat bounce") rather than the market hitting the bottom. We could be moving towards a new trading environment where price becomes volatile (whipsaws), with weaker markets hitting new lows while stronger markets start to find a more significant bottom.

Thus, with the best part of the initial market rebound behind us, I expect markets to work towards their way back to their March lows (as shown in Chart A).
Looking back at the carnage in 2008 (Figure 1), a typical rebound in a bear market ranges from 12% - 24.2% before testing for new lows.

Also, viewers need to understand that the direct effect of the virus is just the start. With lockdowns being imposed on the world ’s demand drivers, world trade growth is about to crash. The speed of decline will be matched only by the freeze in trade finance that occurred in the Global Financial Crisis.

Check out this week's episode of RHO Market Chat:

All posts and charts are for educational and illustration purposes only
Saturday, March 14, 2020

More Upside Next Week After Wall Street Staged Its Biggest Rebound Since 2008?

More Upside Next Week After Wall Street Staged Its Biggest Rebound Since 2008? 

Previous  Price Action Don't Look Too Promising !
Since 2  to 11 Mar Dow Jones Index have failed after every rebound without a follow through buying and in fact prices got lower subsequently .
Donald may have choosed to declare national emergency to combat the Covid 19  just 30 minutes before the market close to catch the short sellers . He also caught the market by surprise by directing the US Energy Dept to purchase crude oil for the strategic petroleum reserves . The annoucement triggered a wave to program short covering that lasted until  the closing bell. Chances are short covering rebound do not last very long.   

All posts and charts are for educational and illustration purposes only
Wednesday, March 4, 2020

RHO Market Chat - Episode 1

Last week, we saw the major US indices top out from their all time highs, dropping over 10% in a single week, and recording one of the worst weeks in history.

Are we entering a bear market, or is this just a healthy correction for the massive bull run?

Find out this and more from Top Tier Trader, Remisier and Principal Investment Specialist Mr Robin Ho in this week's RHO Market Chat!

All posts and charts are for educational and illustration purposes only
Wednesday, February 19, 2020

Gold Prices and Dollar Index Shows The Underlying Strength of Gold is strong

Gold Prices and the Dollar Index 
- As a rule of the thumb , when the value of dollar increases 
relative to other currencies,  the price of Gold tends to fall in dollar terms. Its because gold becomes more expensive in other currencies.  Today spot gold cross the 1600 level in the midst of a bullish dollar trend, it shows the underlying strenght of Gold is very strong and this multi year gold bull cycle that started in Mar 2019 will continue.
All posts and charts are for educational and illustration purposes only
Friday, February 7, 2020

Wall Street Melt Up Looks Like the Run Up Before The Dot Com Bust

U.S. stocks ‘Melt Up’ Looks Like The Final Leg Of Run Up That Happened Before The Dot-Com Crash

It seems like no matter the negative headlines including the disruptive and destructive  corona virus epidemic  stocks continue pushing higher.

Inspite of the Wuhan virus outbreak that threatens to  disrupt global supply chain and businesses in an unprecedented scale  , the benchmark the Wall Street  Index has not only regained its losses from its previous highs two weeks ago but have scaled new highs

The markets are ignoring the negative news but choose to place their faith in central bankers and its easy-money policies – like interest rate cuts and liquidity injections from the most powerful central banks in the world – only throwing  rocket fuel on the Melt Up in U.S. stocks.
The writing is on the wall, we might be reaching the late innings of this historic bull market, but the gains are accelerating. This is really looking like what happened in the late 1990s during the run-up to the dot-com peak.
Of course, a brutal bust followed the dot-com bubble... And the Fed is up to some of the same tricks again today. But most important, smart investors who followed the market higher – and got out at a good time – made a killing.
That's exactly what can happen again this time...
For the smart investors , make the  money and  retire,  it could be the final shot, the Melt Up is about to hit a dramatic turn.

All posts and charts are for educational and illustration purposes only
Thursday, February 6, 2020

Talking to Young Investors at SIT

On Monday, I was invited by SIT Investment Club to talk to "Let's Talk about Money". This is a financial literacy initiative in collaboration with Doctor Wealth. 

I gave the students an overview about the different type of assets to get started on their investment journey. We also looked into real life examples of different kinds of stocks, such as growth stocks, income stocks, speculative stocks, and how to avoid the pitfalls many investors made so that they can start off in the right way.

To encapsulate my points in one picture, I showed them an illustration of a hamburger. It sums up how they can start building their portfolio with sound asset allocation. 

Instead of diving straight into stocks, a young investor can consider starting with a saving plan which gives predictable returns to form the foundation of their retirement income. 

Insurance is key to and should be budgeted well so that it gives adequate protection and also leaves them with sufficient cash flow to pursue their personal growth.

Finally, when they have accumulate sufficient capital, they can look into deploying their funds into a portfolio of stocks, bonds etc. 

Knowledge is power! I hope all of us will continue learning every day.

For enquiries about how to optimise your assets allocation, email us at 

All posts and charts are for educational and illustration purposes only