Stay Up to Date with Robin's Market Updates

From 1 June 2018, live market updates from Robin will only be sent to subscribers via email.

To continue to receive the latest updates, please subscribe.

Wednesday, May 8, 2019

US - China Trade Talk - Friday 1201 pm is Make or Break.


US-China trade talk –Friday at 1201pm Is Make Or Break
For weeks now , Trump has been telling us again and again that trade talk is going well. The market was caught by surprised when Trump roll the market with his tweet  threatening to raise the tariff  rate on USD200bn of Chinese exports from 10% to 25% this Friday at 1201 (spore time)  to penalise China for slow progress and attempting to renegotiate its commitment to commit changes required by the trade agreement into Chinese law.  
This blog believe that these threats are most likely a negotiation tactics meant to incentivise a deal more quickly . This blog do not expect the Trump  would allow the talk to colapse after months of hard work, and though there has been a deterioration in trust on both sides,  raising tariffs would be counterproductive. In particular it would make it impossible to secure an agreement from China to increase its purchases of US products. Without such an agreement it would be hard for the Trump , going into next year’s election, to demonstrate that he is ‘winning’ the trade war. If the Trump miscalculates and China walks away from a deal , stocks will colapse in a hurry. US stocks has been up past 5 months , the sharp drop in stocks  after Trump’s tweet suggest that rising hope of a trade deal have been the key reason why.
This blog base case case remains that an agreement will be done  before mid-year. Once the deal is done , the focus will shift to compliance which  will prove difficult and Trade tensions will again escalate .
In the meantime , the tariffs is scheduled to be raise on Friday at 1201 pm (Spore Time), traders should keep a close eyes on the US indices futures market at 1201 pm  for early clue of the outcome and seize the opportunity to take early action.


All posts and charts are for educational and illustration purposes only

3 comments:

  1. Packers and Movers Bangalore as a Services providing company can make all the difference to your ###Home Relocation experience. Bangalore based Company which offers versatile solutions, Right team that easily reduce the stress associated with a ✔✔✔Household Shifting, ***Vehicle Transportation. we help things run smoothly and reduce breakages and offer you seamless, Affordable, Reliable Shifting Services, Compare Shifting Charges @ Packers And Movers Bangalore

    ReplyDelete
  2. Packers and Movers Hyderabad Give Certified and Verified Service Providers, Cheap and Best ###Office Relocation Charges, ***Home Shifting, ✔✔✔Goods Insurance worth Rs. 10,000, Assurance for Local and Domestic House Shifting. Safe and Reliable Household Shifting Services in Hyderabad with Reasonable Packers and Movers Price Quotation @ Packers And Movers Hyderabad

    ReplyDelete

  3. Packers and Movers Ahmedabad - We Provide ***Best Service Providers, Safe, Reliable, Affordable, Trusted ###Movers and Packers in Ahmedabad List, Household Shifting, Office Relocation: Choose Top Verified Packers and Movers Ahmedabad Compare ✔✔✔Shifting Service Chrages, Price Quotation, Rate List Charts and Save Money and Time @ Packers And Movers Ahmedabad

    ReplyDelete