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Friday, April 20, 2018

The Yield Curve is Flattening, why should investors be worried?

The Yield Curve is Flattening, why should investors be  worried?

The US 2 Year Treasury Yields is at the highest since 2008 at 2.42% and its spread on the 10 year Treasury Yields is narrowing resulting in a flat yield curve. The last time this happened  in 2006 was followed by the Global Financial Crisis in 2007.

This blog view remains that the more the Fed raises rates from here, the more likely the yield
curve is to flatten. Indeed, after having flattened significantly last year, in terms of the spread
between the two-year Treasury and the 10-year, the yield curve began to flatten again towards the
end of last quarter.  This is primarily because short-term rates have continued to rise based on rising Fed tightening expectations.

10-year Treasury bond yield is currently at 2.92 is threatening to reach the year high of 2.95 and could set the stage to take the 3% mark which would  signal to many chartist  the end of the disinflationary era which commenced in the early 1980s and which has, for the most part, proved extremely positive for the stock market. When inflation returns, stock would suffer a massive derating in terms of price earnings ratios as a result higher real interest rates.

All posts and charts are for educational and illustration purposes only


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