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Tuesday, January 31, 2017

Dow - Fake Breakout?

If Dow is unable to stay above 19975 tonight, traders who bet the next bull leg above 20,000 will unwind long trade and that could take the market to 19742 and 19236. For this week it is unlikely that Trump will roll out more major policies as he is busy with the fallout from his immigration policies. This blog still believe that Dow has one more melt up when Trump slashed the corporate tax from the current 36% to 15%.


All posts and charts are for educational and illustration purposes only

Trump's Rally and Inflection Points

Trump has surprised many by fulfilling his campaign promises! These has kept the US market rally going and breaking new high .

When will this rally end? This blog believes that the market is awaiting the announcement of most interesting and potent policies that could give the US market the last 'melt up' . It's Trump's promised to slash the top corporate tax rate to 15% from the current 36%.

Trump’s plan to slash the top rate in half is unprecedented, the reason why any significant slash could be a boon for stocks is straightforward: It quickly could boost per-share earnings of profitable companies. That would make U.S. stocks look more attractive versus bonds and other global investments. The lower taxes leave more retained earnings available to companies that want to use it for investments or share buybacks, that’s also a boon for stocks. He has also promised to ease strictures on oil, gas and coal energy companies. Trump's policies promotes economic growth. The stock  market are already shifting away from consumer staples, utilities and REITs to financial services, manufacturing and energy.

Trump's ultra pro growth policies will continue to be a boost to the U.S dollar. Trump calls China a “currency manipulator” and threatens to impose tariffs up to 45% on imports from China. it sounds like he’d like the dollar to weaken versus the Yuan. But actually, most of his plans are likely to lift the dollar . It seems inevitable if the U.S. economby booms the dollar bull will continue.

Fed seemed to acknowledge finally that America has almost reached full employment. This suggests that there should be a bias towards tightening, and therefore “normalisation” of monetary policy, so long as wage pressures continues to rise. This raises the potential for a monetary tightening scare if wage pressures continue to rise in America and The Donald seeks to implement aggressive fiscal easing.

This blog expect a round of “quantitative tightening” by central banks in the 2nd quarter in the year to prove “risk-negative” for markets.

The bottom line is 2017 carries the potential for rising rates and falling earnings, a “complete reversal” of the falling rates and rising earnings that contributed to big gains for stocks. It's going to be tough for trump to hold up the  “second greatest bull market,” in US history.

In a Greek myth , Icarus ignored his father’s warnings and flew too close to the sun, melting the wax on his homemade wings and plunging back to earth.

Beware of 'Icarus Trade' , we are getting closer!

Have a blessed Lunar New Year . 'Gong xi Fatt chai '
All posts and charts are for educational and illustration purposes only
Tuesday, January 24, 2017

British Pound

Could have bottomed! Trump meets Theresa May this Friday and bilateral trade arrangements is set to be on the agenda. With US formally withdrawn from TPP today and Theresa may setting out the details of a clean BREXIT, this blog expect one 'Game Changer' trade arrangements. The biggest beneficiary could be the Pound. Technically it looks to have bottomed out after a prolonged collapse on BREXIT worries. Currently trading at 1.252 to USD, the next resistance is at 1.29, 1.33 and eventually 1.40 according to this tradeplan.




All posts and charts are for educational and illustration purposes only
Friday, January 20, 2017

US 10-Yr Treasury Yield

Bouncing of the 50 days moving average. The world awaits Trump's inaugural speech tonight. Announcement of aggressive tax reform fiscal stimulus and protectionist policies will cause yield to test the last high again and the dollar index will spike. This blog believe Trump's policies will ultimately push the yield to 3 % which is where stock and bonds will collapse in unison.


All posts and charts are for educational and illustration purposes only
Wednesday, January 18, 2017

Yoma

Ripe for the next run up. Consolidated on a narrow downtrend since Aug last year. Could break out soon, watch for it.


All posts and charts are for educational and illustration purposes only

Breadtalk

Consolidating for the next push up. Supported at 1.15 for past 1 month. Next push will take it to 1.23 and 1.27 respectively.


All posts and charts are for educational and illustration purposes only
Tuesday, January 17, 2017

Dow - Buy on Trump's election Sell on Inauguration?

Dow has been trading sideway as itawaits the outcome of Trump inauguration on 20 Jan. If Trump disappoint in his inauguration speech, the unwinding of crowed long trades could be fierce. A decisive break below 19730 will bearish an could take the DOW down to 19240.


All posts and charts are for educational and illustration purposes only
Monday, January 16, 2017

Comfort Delgro

Will CDG cut cab rental to prevent their drivers from hopping to the other taxi company who have already slashed their rates. Although some research houses has argued that CDG is unlikely to cut rental because their taxi idle rates is low, this blog believe that CDG faced a real test this month when taxi drivers will decide to stay with CDG after they receive their quarterly incentives. n the chart, CDG broke its strong support 2.51 to close at 2.49. It should visit its next support at 2.44 and 2.40 shortly with eventually target at 2.18.


All posts and charts are for educational and illustration purposes only
Thursday, January 12, 2017

STI

Short term price target reached, could retrace to 2965, a break below this level could bring the index to 2890 before any meaningful rebound.



All posts and charts are for educational and illustration purposes only

GL

Formerly Guocoleisure - With attention on M&A play focused on GLP and UE, another old favorite M&A play GL looks to have bottomed at 0.74 and is making its way up. It could test 0.815 in the near term, any break above 0.815 could signal a return of another speculative M&A run.


All posts and charts are for educational and illustration purposes only
Monday, January 9, 2017

What Could Move The Market This Week

President-elect Donald Trump makes his first postelection news conference Wednesday, and traders are looking for more details around his election promises. The return of inflation and a fiscal stimulus in the USA could herald the end of the central-bank leadership and the start of central government dominance. Trump is like reiterate is inflationary and pro growth policies that could take the market higher.

The start of fourth quarter earnings seasons could test the market rally. Friday is especially significant with earnings report of JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, PNC Financial,Wells Fargo, BlackRock

Also important economic data of Retail sales, PPI and  Consumer sentiment.
All posts and charts are for educational and illustration purposes only
Thursday, January 5, 2017

STI

Tested 2966 for the 4th time today. Likely to break out this time to test the 3000 levels. This blog believes the run up to Trump's inauguration on 20 Jan could be the last bull leg for this quarter before the earnings reporting kicks in later this month. Buy on election and sell into Inauguration of Trump could be a good idea.

All posts and charts are for educational and illustration purposes only
Wednesday, January 4, 2017

Cash Prepaid Account 0.12% or S$10

Phillip Securities will be offering new promotional rates for Cash Prepaid Account, 0.12%* or S$10* min. for clients who trade Singapore listed stocks. This promotion is applicable to both new and existing clients. You may wish to take this opportunity to open a Phillip Cash Prepaid Account to enjoy this exceptionally low rates.

* For full details, please visit the POEMS Website https://www.poems.com.sg/012commission/
All posts and charts are for educational and illustration purposes only