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Thursday, December 29, 2016

Comfort Delgro

Trans-cab announced rental cut for taxi hirers in the region of 30%. Comfort will not be sitting still and the market will remain nervous about what action they will be taking. Surge in private car rental fleet coupled with new entrants collaborating with Uber and Grab will intensify the competition. This blog believe this forces of disruption has caused long term structural damage to Comfort taxi business and the share price is at an inflexion point of a long term downtrend.


All posts and charts are for educational and illustration purposes only
Tuesday, December 27, 2016

Looking into 2017

2016’s surprise Brexit and Donald Trump’s US presidential victory was evident of prevailing `populism’ and we can expect more of that in France , Germany and Holland election in 2017. Expect market volatility when Trump starts to roll out his much anticipated tax reform and ultra growth policies on his inauguration on 20 Jan: Today’s benign Japan inflation figures and   Bank of Japan’s 0% yield target policies  on the 10-year government bond  means shorting the Yen and going long on the Nikkei  which this blog has been advocating since Trump was elected remain the best trade as long as the Bond Riot continues . Hopes of improved Global economy and that Trump will unleash an unprecedented  fiscal spending on infrastructure  will keep the US market positive until 20 Jan when Trump’s policies are tested by the markets. I wish everyone a blessed New Year and happy holiday!

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Thursday, December 22, 2016

Jumbo

Double top formation in the making. A break below 0.60 will further support a Top Double trend reversal is evolving. Chilli crab may have finished its course. Next strong support at 0.48.




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Wednesday, December 21, 2016

Raffles Medical

Breaking below significant support at 1.425 will trigger more selling in the short term. It should be heading for 1.365 in the short term with a longer term target at 1.31.


All posts and charts are for educational and illustration purposes only
Tuesday, December 20, 2016

Yangzijiang

Dead cat bounce may be over. A break below 0.805 will take the stock to 0.77 and 0.73 respectively.



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All posts and charts are for educational and illustration purposes only
Monday, December 19, 2016

STI

Back to range trading until Trump inauguration on 20 Jan. Strong support at 2900. Market fireworks starts after 20 Jan, its likely to be a "Sell on News" after Trump announces his fiscal stimulus plan.




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All posts and charts are for educational and illustration purposes only
Friday, December 16, 2016

RMB is Racing to 7.15 Against the USD

Fear of RMB devaluation and Fed hawkish outlook on interest rates is accelerating RMB outflow from China. China markets have been weak despite recent good economic data especially the PPI that has turned positives for the past 3 months. PPI inflation accelerated from 1.2% in Oct to 3.3% YoY. The turned of the PPI is positives because it is an early sign that the Chinese economy is turning around. However the monetary tightening environment is putting a bearish tone on the Chinese market.


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Breadtalk

Emerging from a prolong downtrend with renewed interest reflected by very strong volume. Broke above 1.14 strong resistance level. Could be heading for next resistance at 1.23 and 1.29.














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All posts and charts are for educational and illustration purposes only
Thursday, December 15, 2016

US 10-Yr Treasury Yield

Heading for 3%. This is where equities and bond will collapse together.




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Donald May Force Fed to Accelerate Rate Hikes

The Fed finally pulled the trigger raising interest rates by 25 basis points and signaling a faster pace of increases in 2017. Meanwhile, U.S. retail sales, industrial output data point to slowing growth U.S. retail sales barely rose in November and industrial production recorded its biggest drop in eight months, suggesting some loss of momentum in economic growth in the fourth quarter. Fed have previously sounded cautious. In September, the central bank scaled back its forecasts for next year from three increases to two amid global economic uncertainty, but brought the projection back to three. Asia markets reacted with a sell down in Shanghai and Hang Seng Index. Donald Trump with his ultra pro growth policies may force the Federal Reserve to become more hawkish.  The risk is Yellen may have loss control and second guessing what Trump`s economic plan may entails. Yellen told Congress after the election that the outlook was fuzzy on that front. But Yellen may not have the luxury of waiting and seeing. If inflation and Treasury yields continue to rise, the Fed might be caught behind the curve and might be pressure to up the pace of rate increases.

US 10 Year Treasury and dollar continue to scale new highs. When the 10 Yr T yield hits between 2.8% to 3% , equities and bonds will both experience a synchronize collapse!

All posts and charts are for educational and illustration purposes only
Wednesday, December 14, 2016

Dow

Bulls may charged until Trump Presidential inauguration on 20 Jan. US equities market is the most crowded trade now. The surge in volume is the highest n 3 years, a sign of "Peak Greed". However the end is near but not until Trump becomes President on 20 Jan. The charts are pointing to a tipping point at 20180.




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All posts and charts are for educational and illustration purposes only
Tuesday, December 13, 2016

Sheng Siong

Another yield play going out of favour in a rising rate environment. Good yield play but market is rotating out of yield stocks to finance and energy stocks. Broke significant support at 1.00. If it cannot rebound above 1.00 it could be heading for its next support at 0.93








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All posts and charts are for educational and illustration purposes only
Friday, December 9, 2016

US dollar index

Dollar bull is intact, it is consolidationg for another push up to 103




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US 10-Yr Treasury Yield

Currently at 2.42 is poised to break above 2.5 before going higher 3.0 and 3.4. This is where the bond rout will be joined by equities.


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Wednesday, December 7, 2016

Market Moving Event - ECB meets on 8 Dec

The European Central Bank meets tomorrow (8 Dec) is widely expected to extend its quantitative easing programme by six months amid ongoing political risk and stubbornly low inflation. They are expected to keep the size of its monthly bond purchases unchanged beyond its current end date of March 2017, at a pace of around €80bn a month, according to a majority of economists polled by Reuters.

European market are rally and Euro weaken  on expectation of an extended QE. Lessons from the Italian Referendum, Brexit, and Trump election shows that when its all baked in the risk increases. This blog prefer to short Dax and long Euro into news tomorrow.
All posts and charts are for educational and illustration purposes only
Tuesday, December 6, 2016
Broke new high on a highest volume in 9 months. While most chartist are bullish, this blog believes this is a topping out price action. Trade plan for Dow will be to sell below 19115 after confirmation that it broke below its crucial support at 19122. A break below 19115 could see Dow falling to next support 18850. This blog will only turn bearish when the 19122 support is breached.














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All posts and charts are for educational and illustration purposes only
Friday, December 2, 2016

Market Outlook

Fear of Italian referendum over the weekend cause a broad sell down across all markets in Asia except the Singapore market which has been enjoying its longest rally in recent memory.

Italian PM  Matteo Renzi's job are on the line Sunday, the PM has said he'd resign if the nation vote no to his reforms. After Brexit and Trump’s election, investors aren’t taking chances.

The global bond rout continued as investors speculated Donald Trump’s policies will fuel inflation.

This blog believe  a further bond rout, would start to impact equities negatively when the current switching out of bond into stocks theme runs out of steam.  This blog believe  at some point between 2.5% and 2.8%  on the 10-year Treasury, equity investors would start view the bond selloff as negative for stock, where bonds and stocks will go down together, a double whammy that will cause a global equity sell off. This will be compounded the  continuing strength of the US dollar in a rising rates environment. It could  trigger a renewed short squeeze on emerging markets and  corporates which have borrowed US dollars .

In the absence a calamity in  the stock market it will be very hard for the Fed not to raise rates in December.

All posts and charts are for educational and illustration purposes only

Nov 2016 Master The Market Class Graduates


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Thursday, December 1, 2016

Dow

Oil inspired rally failed to hold on te DOW. Investors went on a buying rampage on news of OPEC agreement to cut oil supply. The oil rally holds but DOW did not. Investors sold off towards the last hour of trade. It was a significant day because the rally came with huge volume. For now dow is capped at 19230. This blog will be bearish if dow breaks 18054. Any break below this level could take the dow to 18600. With the OPEC out of the way the market focus will shift ti the Italian Referendum.




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All posts and charts are for educational and illustration purposes only