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Wednesday, November 30, 2016

DBS

Bull could be exhausted soon. Hit long term resistance at 17.50 today. Could pull back to 17.00 and 16.5 which is the next interim support.







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Friday, November 25, 2016

US 10-Yr Treasury Yield

Bond 35 years bull run could have ended with the arrival of Trumpnomics. Having broken above the 2.25 resistance, the yield could be heading for 2.9. The bond market will continue to discount Trump's ultra high growth policies till he takes office on 20 Jan. Higher yield will keep the dollar bull intact. Yen will be particularly weak because of Kuroda's policies to set JGB at zero.







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Fear Of `No Vote' For Italian Referendum Next Week Could Bring Fear Into The Market Next Week

Constitutional reform vote on Italian referendum due to be held on 4 Dec could bring renew anxiety and uncertainty into European market next week.

Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi is at risk of losing judging from  final polls published last Friday before blackout period. Renzi has pledged to step down and  if he does not win and the concern is that he will be forced to call a general election which could be won by anti-euro “populists” who could threatened another “Brexit”. As 4 Dec draws nearer next week, market will take a risk off approach, selling into the current rally. Euro dollar , Dax and European market could faced a selloff when it becomes clearer that Renzi will be losing. Gold could shine again!

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Thursday, November 24, 2016

Starhub

The bleeding stops, the healing starts. Broke above its 2.81 strong resistance today today triggering a wake of short covering. The upward momentum should continue with the first target at 2.96 and subsequently 3.04 and 3.22




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Wednesday, November 23, 2016

Dow - Red Alert

Hit multi year trend cycle chart point at 19023. Sharp correction could bring it down to 16700.


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Market Outlook 18 Feb 2017 - Register Now


Here’s the link to register for the next market outlook https://bit.ly/2ePhZIF


Click here to view previous market outlook video



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Tuesday, November 22, 2016

Comfort Delgro

Institution selling not over yet. Tested 2.4 six times in the last 2 weeks. Selling pressures likely to cause a breakdown below key support at 2.40. A break below 2.40 will see the stock heading for 2.34 abd 2.27 with eventual target at 2.15.


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Monday, November 21, 2016

ThaiBev

3Q16 result was below expectation. Spirit sales drop with lower margin. On the charts it should be heading towards 1st support at 0.84 and subsequently towards 0.75 where it could find a solid support






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Friday, November 18, 2016

Market Moving Events

4 Dec : Italian referendum- Standby for another Brexit/Trump Election Drama. Good chance the current Prime Minister Renzi might lose this referendum given the Italian economy being the 4th largest in EU has been the worst performer since they joined EU. Expect Euro and European stock market to be weak in the run up.

8 Dec : Europe EU to decide whether to extend the QE after Bond Buying expire on Mar'2017. In the wake of recent interest rate rise and Fed rate hike expectation. Super Mario might stay status quo, imply more euro weakness ahead.

13-14 Dec- US FOMC rate hike looks like baked in the cake. USD rally to continue.
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US 10-Yr Treasury Yield


Broke above the 2.26 critical resistanance level. This blog believes that with Dec hike baked in the cake and Trump ultra pro-growth policies which has yer to be unfold, the yield will head higher prolonging the bull run on the Dollar. Yield could continue to rise until Trump takes office on 20 Jan.


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Monday, November 14, 2016

USD Index

Dollar has embarked on a bull run. Dollar index currently at 99.4 is poised to test 100.4 again. Any break above 100.4 will take the index to 113.5. The 2 year target of USD  Index is 150. A dollar will be detrimental to emerging market's debt and equities. Last week this blog highlighted the reversal pattern on the Jakarta Stock Index.


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Friday, November 11, 2016

TRUMP Triggered `Bond `Riot’

Donald Trump's victory is causing a sharp jump in U .S. interest rates victory. Today we saw emerging markets and its currencies collapsing . The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield went to as high as 2.14 percent Thursday from about 1.80 pre-election, on expectation of large infrastructure program that could generate growth but also create inflation and more debt. While the U.S. stock market rallied Thursday, the Asia markets went the reverse was a blood bath, With higher interest rates , high-yielding stocks like telecom and utilities were particularly weak .When U.S. yields go up, emerging market's get hit, largely because they have dollar denominated debt. The real risk right now is the Treasury bond market and is spiraling down. This is because a Trump triggered “bond riot” has the potential to feed on itself in the run up to his inauguration on 20 January. Another risk posed by a bond riot would be renewed turmoil in the credit markets. A bond sell off will also stress test Kuroda recent commitment to fix the 10-year JGB yield at 0%. If 10-year Treasury bond yield through 2.4%, could trigger a massive bond buying program to support JGB yield at zero % which would be yen bearish and will triggered a sell off in Emerging market and its currencies. The US rate hike in December looks like a sure thing following last Friday’s data with average hourly earnings growth accelerating to 2.8%YoY in October. A strong dollar and rising bond yields, followed by a Fed rate hike will certainly send shudders through the markets as December approaches.
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Jakarta Stock Index - Double Tops


US Treasury yields raising across the broad cause triggered by Trump ultro pro growth plan is causing rupiah and emerging countries currencies to plunge.


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Thursday, November 10, 2016

Trump Victory and Fed Dec Interest Rate Hike Could Caused a Bond Riot

Trump ultra growth plan and Fed Dec rate rise will continue to drive interest rate higher and eventually lead to a steep market correction like what happened in Aug 15 when S&P dive 10%



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Tuesday, November 8, 2016

US ELECTION - How To deal With It

As the US presidency voting day draws near, the huge rally in US market yesterday is pricing in a Clinton victory. Tomorrow we in Asia has an advantage, we will get to react to the Election results before the European and US market is open. Results from State to State should start streaming in from 0600 local time, the earliest time to know who wins is about1200 noon. If Clinton wins as expected, global markets lead by US futures will rally. This blog will be taking advantage of the `Sell On News’ strategy to short into the weakest indices and the weakest stock, this blog will also consider buying Gold and Gold miner stock into dip.

After a relieve rally, market will begin to watch the Fed closely. With US corporate balance sheets are leveraged significantly, with the debt-to-equity ratio again reaching the GFC peak , the Fed tightening scare will return.

 A tightening action could `Tanked,  the US market by 10-15%, as seen during the 2015 rate hike.

Meanwhile both candidates have common plan to spend on infrastructure and defence, they differ significantly beyond that. Trump presidency , would be good for gold and oil stocks, and benefit biotech plays that are under pressure from Hillary’s stance on drug pricing. Cutting repatriation taxes would also help companies such as Apple to bring cash back onshore and reward shareholders. On the other hand, a Hillary win would benefit consumers companies like staples, as she is looking to raise minimum wages.
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Tuesday, November 1, 2016